Sunday, December 12, 2010

A Tale of Two Championships

The 2010 UK Championship certainly hasn't been lacking a good storyline.

From Ronnie O'Sullivan dropping five in a row to lose 9-6 to Stuart Bingham in Round 1 onwards, this tournament has had more ups and downs than something with lots of ups and downs.
With the field now whittled down to two, what is the final going to provide?

On the one hand we have John Higgins - having completed his very controversial six-month ban from the sport, the Wizard of Wishaw marked his comeback with a win and a 2nd place finish at two European events, before returning to Britain and marching through to the final. It hasn't all been plain sailing - he had it tough against Graeme Dott and Mark Allen, and his first-round match against Stephen Lee featured as high-quality snooker as you could expect to see. Lee lost 9-6 with a pot success rate of 96%, normally enough to canter to victory.

On the other hand we have a man sitting at World Number 3 (somehow) - having rediscovered his form over the past couple of years, Mark Williams has made the journey from 46th place in the rankings to the final of a major championship. No one quite knows how - the Welsh Potting Machine hasn't lived up to his name for most of the tournament, missing long pots by up to a foot at times, but he's managed a few Houdini results nonetheless. Only his experience got him through against youngster Mark Joyce, and God knows what got him through against Shaun Murphy last night. Without a 100 break in the tournament so far, Williams has struggled through every frame and match. But he's back where he belongs.

On paper, Higgins has to be favourite. Arguably the greatest matchplayer the modern game has seen, he's come back from his time off with a vengeance. His break-building has been superb, and his safety play as good as ever. A win here would recapture the number one ranking he lost to Neil Robertson after the World Championship, and set him up for another assault on Sheffield in the New Year.
As for Williams, what does he have going for him? Only that he has got to a final he shouldn't have, and that counts for a lot. The best players in all sports are those who can win when they aren't playing well - we've seen Tiger Woods, Rafael Nadal, the All Blacks and Manchester United do it time and again. Williams has nothing to lose really - he's got here through blood and sweat, and no one really expects him to win.
If you look at his last two matches though, there was an interesting feature of both - the only time he pulled out a couple of long pots and half-century breaks was when he was under the utmost pressure - trailing to Mark Joyce in the quarters, and at 8-6 down to Shaun Murphy last night. He will not believe he is beaten, and seems to relish the challenge.

John Higgins is a cannier player than Murphy, and you get the feeling that if he goes 2 up with three to play it will be his night - remember - Murphy had chances in every frame from 8-6 up - but there's still something inside me that is saying that Williams could just pull it off. It's against all the odds and statistics, but you don't play the game the way he has the last week without having something special. John Higgins isn't a mentally weak player, but we have see comebacks launched against him - Mark Allen from 13-3 down, Mark Selby from 11-4 down - ultimately unsuccessful, but he has been prone to losing a few on the bounce.
Mark Williams has been in the tough matches before - who can forget 2003 when he hung on to take his second Crucible crown 18-17 from our Ken?

I don't know. After the week it's been who knows what will happen?

I'm going for Williams.

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